Faris Islam asks if future nights in Baghdad will be punctuated with fireworks or more fighting?
When explosions were heard across Baghdad on Monday night, the Iraqi people knew that this time, the explosions were a cause for celebration, not fear. The explosions — fireworks and firecrackers — heralded what Prime Minister Nour al Maliki decreed as ‘National Sovereignty Day’ and the handing over of security in Iraqi cities from US troops to Iraqi forces. From June 30th, US troops withdrew from cities through out Iraq, abandoning their forward operating posts for bases in the countryside. As US troops moved out, the Iraqi’s moved in, with the new, US-trained Iraqi security forces taking over control of the cities. Though US troops will remain in the country until 2011, and US trainers continue working with Iraqi troops in the cities, ‘National Sovereignty Day’ is a key landmark in the history of post-invasion Iraq.
The withdrawal has left many full of anxieties, even as Iraqi forces parade and party on the streets it is now their responsibility to protect. As an article on Tuesday summarised, ‘Shias fear more bombings by Sunni militants; Sunnis fear that the Shia-dominated security forces will give them little protection’. Despite security concerns, as the BBC’s Jim Muir reports from Baghdad , ‘even the checkpoints were garlanded with flowers and flags, and many had music blaring.’
Hours after the handover however, disaster struck one of Iraq’s major cities, as 27 people were killed when a car bombing ripped through a food market in Kirkuk . The bombing was not an isolated incident, as the days leading up to the withdrawal of US troops were punctuated with deadly attacks almost daily throughout the country, bringing the death toll from violence in June to 155 Iraqis.
The stakes ahead for the Iraqis — and the Americans — are enormous, as they move one giant step closer to the end game, that is, the removal of all US troops in Iraq. The slow draw down of US troops from Iraq over the next two years could hold enormous opportunities both for the US and Iraq, as well as for the Middle East and much of the world.
For the US public, despite the 130,000 troops still stationed in Iraq, Dan Balz argues in the Washington Post , the move has barely been noticed, as an Iraq-weary public deals with the death of Michael Jackson as well as reforms in their economy and healthcare. For Obama however, the event is crucial and needs to go smoothly, ‘given the fullness of his foreign policy agenda’. Needing more troops for Afghanistan, to pacify a strong anti-war lobby and to build goodwill throughout the Middle East, scaling back the US presence in Iraq — or at least the visibility of those troops — will be enormously helpful.
Throughout the Middle East, the shift of troops away from the more visible roles on the streets of the city to bases and training outposts in rural areas will have a symbolic affect on perceptions of the US. Adding to the Obama charm offensive witnessed a few months ago in Cairo, ‘National Sovereignty Day’ is another visible step to reduce the view of the ‘Imperialist American’.
While the potential and possibilities are enormous, the path Iraq will follow is still fraught with difficulties and unanswered questions. Are Iraqi security forces trained enough to handle the expected upsurge in violence? Will sectarianism be put aside and a strong, democratic Iraq emerge? Will the sight of Iraqis dancing in the streets, voting in elections and treating their minorities with respect erase the images of anti-war protests, Abu Ghraib stress positions and terror attacks across the country?
It’s upon these questions that the legacy of Iraq and the future of the Iraqi people will be decided years from now, and on the answers to these questions that future nights in Baghdad will be punctuated with either fireworks or fighting.
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July 7th, 2009 at 5:37
Congratulation to Iraqi, at last they have the opportunity to take care of the security requirements of their nation.
Iraqi government and the security forces have to prove their nation and the rest of the world that, they can keep the peace among each other without exploitation.
I cammend President Obama for keeping his election promise. This is a good start in USA and Muslim World to build trust, respect and better relationship.
We all have suffered enough because of our greed for power and money.
May the peace makers be blessed. Ameen.
July 6th, 2009 at 23:44
This “National Sovereignty Day” business is largely farcical.
Iraqis have no meaningful control in government, in economics or in military matters. In fact, in some cases, city lines were simply redrawn to give the appearance that US forces had withdrawn.
July 6th, 2009 at 13:29
Contrary to all opinions Americans are leaving Iraq to make her independant but would they be able to sustain it without indulging in war among themselves,which atleast I doubt.However only religiou scholar can help by educating people in every mosque & madrasaha that killing of innocent people is unforgiveable crime in Islam
I pray to Almighty Allah for iraqi success to make Iraq peaceful & to make world beleive that it is as true as American departure from Irtaq.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:51
The huge factor on which the lasting peace in Iraq depends is the mind set of Iraqis. As long as there is trust deficit and hate between shias and sunnies there is no chance of peace and harmony within their society.
In Iraq, predominantly the people lost there lives in the bomb blasts, bloody suicide attacks and target killings done by the Iraqis themselves. They killed each other, not the Americans. Americans must have added fuel to the power struggle between shias and sunnis. After Saddam, definitely Americans wanted to see a government.of their choice and an Iraqi society of their liking. For that, by taking benefit of the extremist tendencies of the some religious groups, common Iraqies were killed ruthlessly.
In my opinion, American exit only will not guarantee lasting peace & prosperity in Iraq. It will only happen when Iraqis will learn to co-exist and will become a nation instead of Shias and sunnis. They will accept and respect each other’s religious believes and each other’s religious places as well.
July 5th, 2009 at 18:48
“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”
– Winston Churchill
[Not that Dubya deserves the title of "statesman".]
July 5th, 2009 at 11:40
Peace will come soon. I have no doubt.
July 5th, 2009 at 2:49
After securing the oil, the US is planning to leave Iraq. Also the powerful people are in their pocket for future continuation of American policies. It will take many years for common people to get some relief.
July 5th, 2009 at 1:17
My husband is currently serving in Iraq, all of these postings make it sound as if our troops are coming home, it is not true! My husband still has months left just sitting around doing nothing while we pretend to end the war! Articles like this are really aggravating because we are still sitting over there ‘holding hands’ with the Iraqis and its enough. It’s time to cut them loose and stop spending all of our money there while we have Americans that can not afford to pay their bills!
July 4th, 2009 at 7:23
The SOFA will expire unratified July 31,2009 if the ratification law isn’t amended before then to provide an extension for the referendum to be held, or the agreement cancelled by one of the governments before then, which would give the US 12 months to get out.
I’ve read that it would take the Iraq parliment 30 days to pass a new ratification law once one has been submitted. So far the administration hasn’t submitted one and there’s less than 30 days to go to expirition.
So unless the ratification law is amended or the agreement cancelled it will expire because there isn’t enough time left to hold the ratification referendum. If it does expire unratified Iraq will obtain it’s independence.
I hope this happens. Iraq fought Iran and the US to a standstill in two wars. I seriously doubt they will fail in their efforts to stabalize Iraq once the US is gone.
July 3rd, 2009 at 18:00
“Anyone who believes that peace will be established when the last American leaves Iraq is probably fooling themselves. Civil war likely will break out and the country is likely to fragment into ethnic enclaves…”
Well — thanks to an American —who never deserved to be the president of anything lest a most powerful country of the world with well defined Jeffersonian limits on the use of power around the world.
By the way — this is the same Chicken Little Neocon’s predictions that were used for not exiting Vietnam — till the push came to the shove — and look the sky did not fall over Vietnam after all.
July 3rd, 2009 at 15:07
Anyone who believes that peace will be established when the last American leaves Iraq is probably fooling themselves. Civil war likely will break out and the country is likely to fragment into ethnic enclaves, similar to what happened in Yugoslavia after the end of strong central rule.
July 2nd, 2009 at 19:17
Iraqi People You Are Brave Peoples. Its now your turn to save your country. Avoid any misunderstanding created by America itself. Sunni and Shias are brothers, all the muslims are brothers. So atleast don’t fight now. God bless you.
July 2nd, 2009 at 13:42
I visited Iraq once in my life and that was 2005 and war was going on with the rebels and on that time Iraqi people were saying if American militry decides to leave the country peace will come here automatically. Now in 2009 American troops have withdraw from the country not completely but few. I think even I am sure that peace will be there and Iraqi people are very intellegent now it is upon Iraqi people and Govt that how they bring change for Iraq to be a progressive country in the world.